水资源永续管理系统动力决策支持系统
杨朝仲1＊、张良正2、陈昶宪3、李汉铿3、叶昭宪3、周嫦娥4、
叶欣诚5、何智超6
1逢甲大学营建及防灾研究中心 研究助理教授
2交通大学土木工程学系 教授
3逢甲大学水利工程与资源保育学系 副教授
4台湾经济研究院研四所 所长
5高雄师范大学环境教育研究所 教授兼所长
6交通大学土木工程研究所 博士生
摘要 一般水资源策略在执行前必需由管理机关规划后提送行政院核定经费，其中管理机关之考虑目标为增加供水能力，但行政院核定经费除须考虑技术原则外，仍必须考虑对于环境的冲击，两者考虑并不一致，必需透过协商讨论后，才能决定策略之核定经费，因此这类问题并不适合用优选法来决定一最佳策略，需建立策略模拟平台来作为双方沟通协商工具。而系统动力学正是一套可以帮助管理者处理计划关系人间之沟通，它以因果回馈图清楚呈现问题的架构，使各关系人可以清楚了解系统间的组件如何互相影响，并透过对象导向原理建构模型，让使用者可以容易将因果回馈所表现之问题架构模式化，并可依据各关系人之要求，进行各种不同情境的案例模拟，以求得双赢的策略。因此，本研究目的在以水资源永续管理为目标，从管理的角度，利用系统动力学发展一个整合性之水资源永续管理决策支持系统，本研究系统范围将包括大甲溪流域上、中、下游，研究议题与建置的模型涵盖集水区治理、河川污染、区域水量调配、结构与非结构性缺水防范策略的研拟与其财务成本效益分析，此一水量面、水质面、财务面整合之策略情境模拟平台，将提供决策者比以往仅以单一面向仿真为基础的系统，更高质量的信息。
关键词：系统动力学, 水资源管理, 永续发展
SYSTEM DYNAMICS DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR WATER RESOURCES SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTChao-Chung Yang1＊ , Liang-Cheng Chang 2, Chang-Shian Chen3, Han-Keng Lee 3, Chao-Hsien Yeh 3, Chang- Erh Chou 4, Shin-Cheng Yeh5 and Chih-Chao Ho2
1 Construction and Disaster-Prevention Research Center Feng Chia University, Taichung city, Taiwan
2 Department of Civil Engineering National Chiao Tung University, Hsinchu city, Taiwan
3 Department of Water Resources Engineering Feng Chia University, Taichung city, Taiwan
4 Research Division IV Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, Taipei city, Taiwan
5 Graduate Institute of Environmental Education National Kaohsiung Normal University, Kaohsiung city, Taiwan
AbstractRecently, owing to industrial growth and increasing living standards, the water demand in Taiwan has increased significantly. How to use water resource effectively and exploiting multiple water resources to assist in supply are getting more important. However, development of hydraulic facility has been postponed because of financial concern and environmental impact. Hence, resolving the tension between financial concern, environmental impact and economic growth, while ensuring the sustainable development of water resources is necessary for government authorities. Owing to the system dynamics is built base on causal loop and stock-flow diagram, these represent system structure and operation procedures simultaneously. Accordingly, this investigation proposes a decision support system by system dynamics for evaluating water policy systematically and quantitatively, with reference to water quantity, water quality and net financial benefit as they pertain to the planning and management of regional water resources. Finally, a case study in Tachia river basin is adopted herein to show the effectiveness of the proposal.Keywords: System Dynamics, Water resources management, Sustainable development.
全文请下载:
 水资源永续管理系统动力决策支持系统.rar |
|||||
主办：中国科技开发院江苏分院 协办：南京市电化教育馆